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Sunrise at British Steel Limited steelworks, Scunthorpe Lincolnshire
在英国钢有限钢厂,Scunthorpe,林肯郡的日出。 Credit: Mark Waugh / Alamy Stock Photo.
英国政策
19.March 202113:53

In-depth Q&A: How the UK plans to cut industrial emissions by two-thirds

Josh Gabbatiss

Josh Gabbatiss

03.19.21
Josh Gabbatiss

Josh Gabbatiss

19.03.2021 |下午1:53
UK policy In-depth Q&A: How the UK plans to cut industrial emissions by two-thirds

Factories and industrial hubs across the UK should cut their emissions by two-thirds over the next 15 years under the government’snew planfor low-carbon industry.

It marks thefirst in a seriesof strategies expected from the government this year, setting a course for the nation’s20.50.net-zero排放目标。

Industries including steel, cement and chemicals produce 16% of UK emissions and rely on processes that are among the most difficult and expensive to decarbonise.

This makes firm sectoral targets, support for new technologies and clear signals to businesses all the more important, experts tell Carbon Brief. This piece highlights key points from the 170-page strategy and areas of policy that still remain unclear.

Is the strategy ambitious enough for net-zero?

Theindustrial decarbonisation strategywas announced by the government as an “ambitious blueprint to deliver the world’s first low-carbon industrial sector”.

Its headline aim is that emissions will need to fall by at least two-thirds by 2035 and by at least 90% by 2050, relative to 2018 levels, to be on track for the UK’s net-zero target. This is roughly in line with guidance from government adviser theClimate Change Committee(CCC).

The CCC sees emissions from “manufacturing and construction” –roughly analogousto the government’s definition of industry – falling 70% by 2035 and 90% by 2040 from 2018 levels in its centralnet-zero pathway.

The charts below indicate two broad scenarios modelled by the government. The main distinction in the pathways is whether carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen are available across the country (“national networks”) or only at industry clusters in places such as Teesside and South Wales, which account for half of industrial emissions (“cluster networks”).

Even in these scenarios, the government expects there to be some remaining carbon dioxide (CO2) even in 2050, shown as “residual emissions” in the charts below. This creates demand for expensive “negative emissions” elsewhere.

Different pathways for industry that are compliant with an economy-wide net-zero target modelled by the government
行业的不同途径,符合政府建模的经济范围内的净零目标,剩下的排放量在浅蓝色。顶部图表指示具有广泛的CCS和氢的国家基础设施网络的场景,底部图表表示具有CCS和氢基础设施的情景,包括局限于产业集群。缩写是:资源效率和能源效率(REEE);碳捕获和储存(CCU);和碳捕获(BECC)的生物能量。来源:BEIS.

The government sets out its principles at the start of the report, stating:

“从长远来看,我们认为碳市场最佳地确定最具成本效益的脱碳途径。但行业面临着一系列良好的清洁增长障碍,以及迄今为止的政府努力尚未提供使脱碳可行所需的框架。我们将改变政策景观以克服这些问题。“

It includes a handful of targets including 20 terawatt hours (TWh) of low-carbon power in industry replacing fossil-fuel sources and 3m tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) captured by 2030.

There is also a commitment to “consider the implications” of the CCC’s recommendation to achieve net-zero steelmaking by 2035.

However, there is no commitment for水泥, despite the committee calling for a similar target for the industry to achieve net-zero by 2040.

Roz Bulleid, deputy policy director at the thinktankGreen Alliance告诉碳短暂,虽然乐动体育下载app它是“令人鼓舞” that emissions reductions described in the strategy are similar to CCC’s guidance, it would benefit from firmer commitments for key sectors like steel:

“[For] sectors where the technology is emerging I think some bolder targets would be welcome…it would be a really strong signal of government intent and help focus minds.”

Questions remain unanswered around the business models and incentives the government has in mind. These would give industries confidence to make the shift and enable investors to place a value on industrial decarbonisation.

这一想法是,超越零碳工具套件的前台支持,公司需要为清洁产品提供可存放的持续市场,以证明投资。

Tim Lordfrom theTony Blair Institute for Global Changesays that while there are mentions of supporting low-carbon technologies and long-term targets, there is much less on these “middle bits”. The government says it will have details of ways to support business models for CCS and hydrogen ready this year and will implement them in 2022.

Richard Howard, research director atAurora Energy Research, agrees that while it is “still useful to have an overarching strategy”, there remains plenty of uncertainty:

“If you’re about to make the investment decision on something that either is or isn’t consistent with this strategy, how does this strategy influence you? Well, it gives you a general direction of travel…but it doesn’t really give you precise details.”

Earlier this month the House of Commons公共账户委员会concludedthat “at present, there is no coordinated plan” for achieving net-zero from the government.

In ablog post,Dr Jonathan Marshall, head of analysis at thinktank theEnergy & Climate Intelligence Unit(eciu)写道,更多的“模糊”的语言对缓和疑虑做得更多的事情,尽管他指出,该战略暗示在政府内更加了解。

A number of relevant strategies are expected in the coming months – including ones focusing on hydrogen, heat and buildings and transport – as well as a net-zero review from the Treasury and, ultimately, a net-zero strategy before the COP26 summit.

Is the government committing enough money?

预计工业脱碳需要大量投资。正如主指出的那样,“燃烧化石燃料总是更昂贵,捕获和埋葬二氧化碳只是燃烧化石燃料”。

The CCC估计在净零的轨道上获得制造和建造将需要每年在2030年的2035年达到约1亿英镑的投资,2035英镑和40亿英镑到20世纪40年代。

Money to fund this transition can come from businesses as well as government, and the document is clear that costs should be shared between industry, consumers and taxpayers.

The main funding pledge in the new strategy is the allocation of £171m from the工业脱碳挑战基金, which was initially announced in 2019.

The government also has other relevant funds in the pipeline such as a £240m net-zero hydrogen fund and a CCS infrastructure fund worth £1bn. Details of the investment needs from both government and businesses can be seen in the timeline below.

The government’s industrial decarbonisation strategy in the 2010s and 2020s
The government’s industrial decarbonisation strategy in the 2010s and 2020s, including costs and investments for industry (indicated by superscript 1), government (2) and estimated investment costs based on energy consumption (3). Abbreviations are: the industrial energy transformation fund (IETF) and the industrial decarbonisation challenge (IDC). Source:BEIS.

Alongside the industrial strategy, the government announced the 429 recipients of its £932m public sector decarbonisation scheme for hospitals, schools and council buildings.

This funding wasoriginally announcedlast summer as part of the government’s “green recovery” stimulus efforts, alongside the recently scaled-back “green homes grant”.

Much oftheresponse新战略专注于资金规模。在相对较小的“脱碳挑战”基金之间的反对律政政律和分配给其他欧洲国家的氢气之间的反对派劳动政治家进行了比较。

Bulleid tells Carbon Brief that, compared to the CCC’s £1bn by 2030 figure, “there isn’t much money committed here”.

With details still to come on revenue mechanisms to support business models for both CCS and low carbon hydrogen (see next section), Lord says that clarity is key:

“You could, theoretically, do it with…no taxpayer investment at all if you get the incentives right for people, but then you’ve got to be quite aggressive on regulation, on carbon pricing and on other tools.”

However, Bulleid expresses concerns about the lack of public funding, telling Carbon Brief the government could have made more commitments to the industrial energy transformation fund (IETF) or other targeted funds. She says:

“If they are going to make up most of the money through the business models for hydrogen and CCS that would then be a concern to see so much of the funding swung that way”.

What is the plan for achieving net-zero steel production?

英国的主要初级钢铁生产设施 - Port Talbot and Scunthorpe的高炉 - 目前占英国工业温室气体排放的15%。

Shifting to a zero-carbon steel sector is therefore “essential to the decarbonisation story of UK industry”, the strategy says.

There are various options available for “green steel” including using电弧炉– which are used to produce “secondary steel” from recycled scrap metal – instead of conventional fossil fuel-based blast furnaces, as well as using CCSand hydrogen.

The charts below show two different scenarios outlined by the government, with different mixes of these technologies, largely depending on the availability of hydrogen, which is deemed a cheaper option.

Potential scenarios for decarbonising the steel sector in the UK
Potential scenarios for decarbonising the steel sector in the UK. Abbreviations are: resource efficiency and energy efficiency (REEE) and carbon capture and storage (CCUS). Source:BEIS.

The government has attracted criticism because, while nations includingGermanyand Sweden are pushing forward with low-carbon steel trials using hydrogen, the UK is falling behind.

Two years ago, the government announced a £250m “clean steel fund”, but despitecalls要转发,目前尚未提供任何资金until 2023.

While the strategy mentions the CCC’s proposed 2035 net-zero date for steel, the government does not go further than saying it will “consider the implications” of setting such a target.

This industry has been in the news due to thecontroversy over plans for a new coal minein Cumbria, which would produce coking coal for use in steel production.

Supporters of the mine argue this type of coal will continue to be needed for some time, whereas the CCC timeline implies a much shorter lifespan for the development.

Following international pressure, the government has belatedly”called in”the local authority’s decision to allow the project to go ahead, meaning a public inquiry will be held and a final decision made by the communities secretary. Business and energy secretary Kwasi Kwartenghas saidthat there are “very compelling reasons” not to open the mine.

However, the strategy does not entirely rule out the continued use of coking coal, stating:

“这种策略需要技术无关的方法and so does not rule out the use of coking coal in an integrated steel making process together with CCUS as a net-zero compliant option going forward.”

Ina letterto communities secretary Robert Jenrick in January, CCC chair Lord Deben warned against the opening of the Cumbria mine. He noted that coking coal should only be used in steelmaking beyond 2035 “if a very high proportion of the associated carbon emissions is captured and stored”. He added:

“Coking coal use in steelmaking could be displaced completely by 2035, using a combination of hydrogen direct reduction and electric arc furnace technology.”

是否有脱碳水泥的策略?

Half of the emissions from traditional水泥productioncome from the “calcination” of limestone, which produces CO2 as a by-product and therefore can only be decarbonised using CCS.

Cement accounts for around 6% of UK industrial emissions. Unlike steel and other major industries, many cement sites are not located in industrial clusters, something the strategy identifies as a “significant challenge”.

这就意味着,在场景不是feasible to install CCS infrastructure beyond industrial hubs, it becomes much harder to eliminate cement emissions. This can be seen in the charts below, which shows significant residual emissions in the “cluster networks” outlook.

Potential scenarios for decarbonising the dispersed cement sector in the UK
Potential scenarios for decarbonising the dispersed cement sector in the UK. Abbreviations are: resource efficiency and energy efficiency (REEE) and carbon capture and storage (CCUS). Source:BEIS.

Although there is no discussion of a target, in line with the CCC’s proposal to make cement a net-zero industry by 2040, in the “national networks” scenario above the industry does reach zero emissions by 2040, through a combination of CCS and efficiency improvements.

What is the role of CCS and hydrogen?

The strategy relies heavily on the widespread deployment of both low-carbon hydrogen and CCS to cut emissions from fossil fuel-reliant sectors. As it stands, both of these technologies are barely used in the UK, with CCS, in particular, having been subject to a string of failed government attempts to get it off the ground.

The document notes that the government will need to play “an active role in overcoming market failures” and share the “risk and costs of scaling up deployment” of these technologies.

The charts below show how industrial energy shifts play out in different modelling scenarios, with gas use falling dramatically in both cases.

Hydrogen takes a particularly large role in the “national networks” outcome (top), contributing up to 86TWh of energy by 2050. This is the equivalent of a quarter of the nation’s entireelectricity demandtoday.

Change in industrial energy use by 2050
Change in industrial energy use (TWh) by 2050 in the “national networks” (top) and “cluster networks” (bottom) scenarios. Source:BEIS.

In the “cluster networks” pathway, electrification plays the larger role, because the infrastructure does not emerge to provide areas outside of industrial clusters with hydrogen.

While green groupscriticisedthe strategy for relying too much on CCS, the government is emphatic that without it “emissions from current industrial processes cannot be reduced to levels consistent with net-zero”.

收到我们的自由乐动体育官网对于过去24小时的气候和能量媒体覆盖范围的摘要,或我们的摘要Weekly Briefingfor a round-up of our content from the past seven days. Just enter your email below:

This is consistent with the CCC’smessagethat “CCS is essential to achieving net-zero”.

In the report’s modelling scenarios, there is 3MtCO2 captured per year using CCS in 2030, and 8-14MtCO2 per year in 2050. The government says it will support the deployment of 3MtCO2 worth of CCS at industrial sites by 2030.

It haspreviously committedto 10MtCO2 of CCS by 2030. The remaining 7Mt could come from CCS used in the electricity sector, for example in gas or biomass-fired power plants.

“My question there would be, OK where are the business models?” says Lord. This is a wider issue arising from the report, which does not set out a clear plan for encouraging private investment in these technologies.

“To do anything relating to CCS or hydrogen it’s hard to know what that is going to look like even in two years time,” says Howard.

霍华德还讲碳简介,而他们的策略也没有乐动体育下载app完全形成,而且billions committedto hydrogen in nations like France and Germany are likely to draw the eyes of businesses:

“If you’re looking across Europe and thinking ‘where should I play?’, at the moment the UK’s position isn’t that clear, so there’s a risk that people focus elsewhere initially.”

政府表示,它计划在2021年在2021年完成其对工业CCS和氢企业模式的思路,并在2022年实施它们。CCS方法将基于contracts for differencethat have helped promote wind power in the UK.

今年政府表示,它将调查政策选择,以鼓励企业从化石燃料切换到氢气,以及电气化和生物量(主要与CCS)技术。在即将到来的氢策略和2022年的生物质策略中也有更多细节。

Is there a clear plan for carbon pricing?

The UK’s carbon pricing system has been left up in the airfollowing Brexit, with aUK emissions trading system(UK ETS) technically in place but much of the detail still unknown.

The strategy provides some additional details, stating that the cap on the overall amount of emissions allowed, “will be aligned with the UK’s net-zero ambition by January 2024”, reflecting the recent能量白皮书commitment to implementing the “world’s first net-zero carbon cap and trade market”.

This year, the government will carry out a review of the UK ETS, in which it will explore whether to expand the scheme beyond the existing participants in domestic aviation, power generation and heavy industry. TheDaily Telegraphreported this week that it could be expanded to include agriculture.

Glossary
Carbon leakage:Carbon leakage is the idea that emissions-intensive industry could relocate production to another jurisdiction, to avoid paying (the same level of) carbon prices. Emissions would fall in the country where CO2 is…Read More

The government will also assess the continued use offree allowances, which currently enable big polluters to release some emissions without paying anything and cost the government over £1bn a year in lost ETS revenues.

自由津贴目前用于防止“碳泄漏”,活动或供应链在海外移动以逃避排放定价。

The government said the current approach “may overcompensate for the risk of leakage, and…we want to ensure that carbon leakage policies are better targeted”.

It lists climate diplomacy, a “carbon border adjustment mechanism” and improving domestic productivity as actions it will consider to prevent leakage.

逐步淘汰自由津贴的想法was welcomedby experts as part of a long-term strategy to encourage industrial decarbonisation. A呼吁证据已发出此主题。

How important are consumer choices and efficiency in the plan?

Beyond the headline-grabbing funding commitments and plans for “deep decarbonisation” of industry, there is some discussion in the strategy of measures to impact consumer choices such as adding carbon labels to products.

Such actions can “increase industry confidence in the profitability of decarbonisation and to support consumers to make low carbon choices,” the strategy says.

However, most of these proposals are confined to “calls for evidence” rather than firm policies, which Lord says “feels a bit can-kicking”.

“You’re not going to bank on having a big green steel market in the UK because the government is doing a call for evidence, so you need to get through those stages quite quickly,” he tells Carbon Brief.

也有更多的能源效率计划asures, which the strategy says could cut 4MtCO2e from industry by 2050, largely via heat recovery and equipment upgrades.

Bulleid告诉碳简短,她乐动体育下载app担心这些措施被忽视。在你开始使用像CCS这样的技术之前,它会在可能的情况下减少排放量,更有意义,“她说。”

However, according to Howard, one of the biggest challenges here is not a lack of support, but simply raising awareness of incentives and funding routes to invest in energy efficiency – an issue highlighted in the strategy.

Sharelines from this story
  • In-depth Q&A: How the UK plans to cut industrial emissions by two-thirds

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