菜单

Social Channels

SEARCH ARCHIVE


Additional Options
Topic

日期范围

Receive a Daily or Weekly summary of the most important articles direct to your inbox, just enter your email below. By entering your email address you agree for your data to be handled in accordance with our隐私政策

第13届全国人民大会第四届会议在北京的人民大厅开幕
第13届全国人民大会第四届会议在北京的人民大厅开幕。 Credit: Xinhua / Alamy Stock Photo.
中国政策
12 March 20218:32

问答:中国第14届五年计划对气候变化的意思是什么?

Carbon Brief Staff

多个作者

03.12.21
Carbon Brief Staff

多个作者

12.03.2021 |上午8:32
中国政策 问答:中国第14届五年计划对气候变化的意思是什么?

本周,在北京的一年一度的“两会”政府中的政治聚会approved一个关键政策文件,将在未来十年及以后大量影响国家经济发展 - 和气候政策。

在一周长期的会议之后,中国国家人民大会(NPC)昨日正式地确定了“十三五年计划和长期目标的概述2035”。

In short, the five year plan’s outline sets a 18% reduction target for “CO2 intensity” and 13.5% reduction target for “energy intensity” from 2021 to 2025. For the first time, it also refers to China’s longer-term climate goals within a five year plan and introduces the idea of a “CO2 emissions cap”, though it does not go so far as to set one.

这些新目标已触发widespread discussionabout China’s ambition to tackle its rising emissions. Some have expressedscepticismwhich questions the five year plan’s “shortfall“相对于长期的气候承诺。Otherssay China has a history of overachieving its targets and this needs to be taken into account.

在这种深入的问答中,碳简介解释了计划释放背后乐动体育下载app的更广泛的背景,以及中国努力解决气候变化可能意味着什么。

Gathering together the reaction of various China experts, the Q&A also explains how the outline agreed this week is just a foretaste of the range of regional and sectoral plans due to be published over the next year.

什么是'两个会议'?

“两届会议”是每春季举办的两个主要政治会议的集体术语。普通话中被称为“梁晖”,他们是全体会议全国人民代表大会(NPC), China’s top legislative body, and中国人民政治协商会议(CPPCC),该国的最高政治咨询机构。值得注意的是,政协没有持有任何立法权。

两会每年有数千人参加,通常3月3日至5日在北京开幕,由政协牵头,为期10至12天。开张日期只有两个例外,都是因为Covid-19大流行。去年,会议were postponed to May,虽然今年他们的持续时间缩短到六天半。

为什么今年的“两场会”重要?

在年度会议期间,中国执政党的领导 - 中国共产党(CPC) - 在未来12个月内阐述其愿景。中央政府审查和批准国家经济和社会发展计划,并收到关于以上计划执行情况的报告。因此,这两个会议被认为是中国最重要的年度政治集会。

This year’s two sessions carry extra significance because they also oversaw the approval of the nation’s next “five year plan” – the 14th in a series stretching back to 1953. They were also held just months after Chinese leader Xi Jinpingannounced中国为2030年加强其气候承诺的新野心 - 它nationally determined contributionunder the Paris Agreement – and to reach “碳中立性” by 2060.

今年,中国领导人聚集在北京的人民大会堂,揭示了全国的冠状病毒经济增长。乐动体育正规吗除了设定2035年的长期“前景”之外,他们还设定了将在未来五年内引导该国的主要能源和气候目标。这为他们必须提供的“旅行方向”提供了政策制定者未来15年。

由于去年9月Xi的承诺,“二氧化碳排放峰”和“碳中立”是今年会议参与者中最受欢迎的两个最受欢迎的主题。例如,有影响力的参与者能源公司,重工业制造商和技术公司introduced a series ofproposals当two sessions on ways to减少国家的排放量。

What is a ‘five year plan’?

五年计划或FYP是中国宣布的全面的政策蓝图,每五年释放,以指导其整体经济和社会发展。

该系统是1928年苏联首次使用根据斯大林的统治,后来被中国共产党通过,为新成立的人民共和国制定了经济配额。

毛泽东主席领导起草了国家的宪法first five year plan, which ran from 1953 to 1957 and was officially approved in 1955.

从那时起,中国已发布并实施了13项这些准则,这些指南由国家,部门,省级和区域一级的一系列文件组成。

在本周的两会上,全国人大检验过的andapproved“经济和社会发展的第14届”五年五年计划概述,通过2035年“(缩短为”概述“),自2018年以来一直在制作。

概述的准备和制定涉及若干关键政府机构,包括国务院,由总理领导的中国最高行政机关the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China(CCCPC), a political body comprising top leaders. (A recent Carbon Brief文章gave more explanation about China’s governance structure.)

这drafting of the 14th outline began in late 2020 after the CCCPC had conducted relevant research and deliberation, before presenting its assessment of the country’s situation in a formal “opinions“向国务院的文件。然后,理事会在收到此舆论文件后起草了大纲。

Over the years, China’s FYPs have evolved beyond their initial functions of economic roadmaps. The official document now covers all important issues, from national security through to carbon emissions. Xi呼叫the plans “an important way for our party to govern the country”.

Timeline showing the key steps in the formulation, implementation and evaluation of the 14FYP. Source: Information based on details revealed innews来自暗示的媒体。汤姆普拉特为碳简介的图表。乐动体育下载app

大纲通常在中国以外的媒体报告中提到,似乎是“第14届五年计划”。然而,重要的是,概述作为2021 - 2015年的更详细规划的连续论总的总体指南,其中包括特定于部门的规划,例如水泥行业,以及国家安全等主题规划,以及行政各级规划,从中央,省,市政下到县级。

这se plans are due to be published later in 2021 and in early 2022, to break down the targets set in the outline at sectoral and administrative level, and to provide detailed action plans for implementation, evaluation and reporting.

在“十四五”规划中,将包括到2030年实现二氧化碳排放峰值和生态环境部制定的节能减排计划,以及国家发展和改革委员会制定的能源、可再生能源、煤炭、电力发展计划(NDRC)以及国家能源局(国家能源局),由工业和信息技术部配制的钢铁,水泥,铝和化学品等能源密集型工业部门(MIIT.)。

What does the 14FYP say about energy and climate?

这148-page outline of the 14th FYP gives an insight into the main goals for China in the period 2021-2025, as well as its longer-term goals for 2035.

活力and climate indicators are included under “new progress of ecological civilisation”, which is one of the six overarching economic and social development goals of the 14th five year plan. This section appears in the text after the goals on economic reform and society and before those on public welfare and governance.

更广泛地,“能量”是在14Fyp轮廓的核心,在整个文件中出现了59次。本文的作者奉献了整个部分,标题为“建立现代能源系统”(见下文),以绘制此过渡的计划。

Furthermore, “energy” appears in a dozen other chapters, such as ecological planning, green economy, environmental protection and resource conservation, national economic security and energy and resource safety strategy.

In comparison, the word “energy” is mentioned six times more frequently than “climate” in the text. The terms “climate” and “climate change” appear just nine times, mainly in the section titled “actively responding to climate change” (see below).

Screenshots from the draft for adaptation of the 14FYP published by the NPC
这top section is the outline’s text on “new progress of ecological civilisation”, one of six overarching goals for 2025. Below this, two separate sections are dedicated to energy and climate, namely “Establishing a modern energy system” (bottom left) and “Actively responding to climate change” (bottom right). Source: Screenshot from the draft for adoption of the 14FYP published by the NPC (2021).

In total, the 14FYP’s outline devotes four of its 20 “indicators” on economic and social development to energy and climate change (see table below), including half of the “binding” targets. This means that the central government is determined to achieve them as part of its political key performance indicators (KPIs).

“十四五”规划的20个主要经济和社会发展指标中,有4个涉及能源和气候目标。
“十四五”规划的20个主要经济和社会发展指标中,有4个涉及能源和气候目标。这y are: “Reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP(%)”; “Reduction of CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (%)”; “Forest coverage rate (%)”; and “Comprehensive energy production capacity”. All four of the energy- and climate-related indicators are labelled as “binding”. Source: Screenshot from the draft for adaptation of the 14FYP published by the NPC (2021).

Specifically, as shown in the table above, the outline requires an 13.5% reduction in the nation’s energy consumption per unit of GDP – also known as “energy intensity” – during the 2021-25 period and a 18% cut in its CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, also known as “CO2 emissions intensity”. (just below the table of indicators).

大纲要求改善森林覆盖率23.4%2020年到24.1%. Moreover, it expects the country’s total energy production to reach more than 4.6bn tonnes of coal equivalent from coal, petroleum, natural gas and non-fossil energy. Previous five year plans had set a cap on energy production rather than a minimum level.

这first three of these binding energy and climate goals are considered “green ecology” targets, while the fourth, on energy production, is categorised as security-related.

14个概述提议将非化石能量的总能源份额提高到2025年的大约20%左右,从而增加15.8%in 2020. Yet, this is not labelled as an “indicator”, which means it is neither indicative nor binding by nature.

提出的百分比符合政治承​​诺十二月十二月十二月十二月大于2030年的雄心所欲近,XI提出了2030年的野心。谢务证明中国将增加份额约25%。迄今为止,中国尚未正式提交增强的NDC联合国气候变化框架公约(UNFCCC),尽管截止日期为2020年底。

As for climate change, the 14FYP outline reaffirms the implementation of the NDC for 2030 without listing specific new targets. It also demands that the nation formulates an action plan on how to peak CO2 emission before 2030, as soon as possible.

在描述2035年的长期前景时,它重复了xi的政治承​​诺in December, that “CO2 emissions steadily decrease after peaking”. Xi used exactly the same words when describing China’s carbon neutrality goal before 2060.

同时,14个概述介绍了“现代能源系统的建设项目”列表。它涵盖了六个关键的能源发展领域,包括建设八个大型清洁能源“基础”,沿海核电,电力传输路线,电力系统灵活性,油气运输和储存能力。关键项目的地理分布在下面的地图中说明。

The-14Fyp-utline-提出 - 建设的八大清洁能源基地 - 中国
14碎“五年规划纲要提出eig建设ht major clean energy bases across China (orange areas outlined by dotted lines). It also maps out a programme to transfer clean energy from these bases to eastern China – where the nation's most prosperous provinces and industrial bases are situated – through so-called power transmission routes (“tunnels”). The blue arrows represent the projects to be constructed and put into use during the 14FYP period. The red arrows represent those planned by the 13FYP due to go into operation during the 14FYP period. The grey lines stand for the main power transmission lines that have already been constructed. Major power generation centres are illustrated by fuel, as follows: hydropower (blue water turbine), offshore wind (blue wind turbine), fossil-fuelled thermal power (red), nuclear (brown), onshore wind (green wind turbine) and solar power (black). Source: Screenshot from the draft for adaptation of the 14th FYP published by the NPC (2021).

碳简介采访的专家表示,关于气候行动的更详细的目乐动体育下载app标,例如CO2排放控制目标(“二氧化碳排放盖”)最有可能在14码上披露greenhouse gas emission control and prevention

Similar to 12FYPs and 13FYPs, experts expect more detailed targets for the energy sectors, such as the煤炭消费和生产,renewable energy development and utilisation,和electrification rate and electricity power structure, to be announced in sector specific plans issued by NDRC and NEA in the coming year.

此外,Mee还有推出制定“峰值发射峰发射的行动计划”requiresprovincial governments to formulate a “provincial peak emission action plan” by April 2021.

According to the technical guidelines, this will include a series of detailed indicators – shown in screenshot below – such as total energy consumption, energy mix, share of fossil fuel in total energy consumption, and dual CO2 emission caps – intensity and absolute emissions – on industry, building, transport, agriculture and homes.

表明省级峰值排放行动计划草案所需的一些核心指标所需的核心指标
一份表格,列出了“省级峰值排放行动计划”草案需要编制和计算的一些核心指标。它们将于2021年4月提交给MEE。资料来源:会议发布的《省级二氧化碳排放峰值行动计划编制指南》截图。

什么是未答复的问题?

这14FYP outline has left many unanswered questions concerning China’s energy transition and its efforts to tackle climate change. For example, the outline stresses that the nation should implement a cap system that is “based primarily on carbon intensity control, with the absolute carbon cap as a supplement”. Yet, the outline does not give an exact number on the CO2 emission cap.

回应一些国际观察员comments在“保守派”的纲要上,或缺乏严格的措施,中国专家面谈的碳简介表示,他们希望在14个特定的部门和区域计划中澄清这些细节。乐动体育下载app生态和环境部() will set targets for nationwide greenhouse gas emission controls between late 2021 and early 2022.

Some of the国际的coverageof the outline has drawn on乐动体育app苹果jsuggesting the plan could allow China’s emissions to continue increasing at the rate of1-1.7%per year until 2025.

Such analysis shows the energy and CO2 intensity targets could still be met, even as overall emissions increase, depending on the rate of GDP growth over the plan period. Notably, however, the 14FYP outline drops a five year GDP growth target in favour of year-by-year goals, meaning such emissions calculations are uncertain.

下表取自乐动体育app苹果jpublished byLauri Myllyvirta.Centre for Research and Clean Air,根据三种不同水平的GDP增长,这表明了各种目标可能发生什么。

GDP growth, 2022-2025, per year 5% 5.5% 6.0%
活力intensity reduction 2020-2025 -13.5% -13.5% -13.5%
Total energy consumption growth, 2021-2025, per year 2.3% 2.7% 3.1%
二氧化碳强度减少2020-20 -18.9% -18.9% -18.9%
煤consumption growth, 2021-2025, per year 0.1% 0.5% 0.9%
石油消费增长,2021-2025年,每年 2.7% 3.1% 3.5%
Gas consumption growth, 2021-2025, per year 5.2% 5.6% 6.0%
非化石燃料能源产量增长,每年2021-2025 7.1% 7.5% 7.9%
CO2 emissions growth, 2021-2025, per year 1.0% 1.4% 1.7%
Indicative calculations of China’s energy consumption and CO2 emissions trends until 2025 under the five-year plan targets, depending on the GDP growth rate. Source: Screenshot from analysis published by Centre for Research and Clean Air (CREA).

Similarly, some observers and media have expressed失望关于缺乏关于煤炭淘汰的清晰语言。例如,缺少能量混合中煤炭的份额,也是总煤炭消耗控制目标(“煤盖”)。后者,首先介绍13FYP on energy developmentpublished in 2016, was a “binding indicator”, which required the percentage of coal consumption in total energy consumption to drop from 64% to 58% over five years.

闵胡,创新绿色发展计划执行董事(iGDP), points out that an “energy consumption cap” already existed in previous energyplanningfor the 2030 energy revolution, which sets a total control target for total energy consumption at “no more than 6bn tonnes of standard coal” by 2030.

她补充说,如果即将到来的能源发展计划纳入其中的计划,则煤炭消费将需要略微下降14个差外期建议- 例如来自中国的能源研究中心国家电网- 稳步减少煤炭消耗量的主要能量下降57%2020年到大约50%by 2025. However, this still represents100-200吉格瓦斯(GW) of new coal-plant capacity.

Dr Fuqiang Yang, a distinguished researcher of theInstitute of Clean Energyat Peking University, underlines the “superior” political priority for the Chinese government of achieving an emissions peak and, ultimately, carbon neutrality. He believes that, as a result, a “coal cap” for 2021-2025 will eventually be announced in the subsequent FYP on energy development and coal development, which the National Development and Reform Council (NDRC) and National Energy Administration (国家能源局)现在正在制定。

他补充说,即使没有明确的“煤炭上限”,该纲要关于能源的约束性指标仍将对限制煤炭消费及其在能源结构中的份额产生实际影响。他向Carbon Brief解释道:乐动体育下载app

“Based on current targets, by 2025, non-fossil energy will definitely reach 20%. Natural gas steadily increases by 3% every five years, so we can assume that it will reach 11.5% in 2025 and oil may account for 18.5%. Under the [non-fossil energy] target, the share of coal in the energy mix must [therefore] be reduced to at least 50% or below – and I think it’d be very likely to drop to 48%, in comparison to 56.8% in 2020.”

尽管没有“煤帽”和二氧化碳排放帽,但闵胡仍然认为大纲发出“非常重要的信号”。她讲碳简短:乐动体育下载app

“When China added ‘CO2 intensity’ to the existing ‘energy intensity’-based control targets in the十一五规划,很多人也认为它纯粹是数学运动。但这是一个大转点 - 对于中国的气候行动,14fyp轮廓也是如此。实现这一步骤是一段非常困难的旅程。毕竟,系统内仍有很大的反对。“

Professor Ji Zou,非政府组织能源基金会(EFC)的首席执行官和主席同意,这些目标不会“轻松”。他说,直到2020年代初,政策制定者及其顾问仍然有很多争论,以纳入低碳发展目标将为“经济的大震撼”。Covid-19锁定后的经济放缓使决定更加困难。他讲碳简短:乐动体育下载app

“The debate was very fierce: one side pushed for incorporating more low-carbon indicators and more ambitious and stringent targets, while the other side insisted on reducing binding targets for deepening the reform towards a market economy. The hesitation continued until the end of last summer and momentum was finally achieved under the strong political determination on furthering decarbonisation. In the autumn, the top leadership set the tone for the 14FYP: the plan is to not only continue the path on low-carbon development, but also to accelerate the transition, in particular, to incorporate the carbon-neutrality target into the planning.”

In addition, the 14FYP outline specifies that China should “strive to increase the storage and production of oil and gas” and “accelerate the construction of natural gas network pipelines”. This is consistent with China’s national policy on煤气“在空气污染的双重压力下”控制和预防”, as well asenergy and CO2 intensity reduction

最近,“NO1中央文件“由CCCPC和国务院在2021年共同发布,还列出了”促进天然气进入农村地区“,作为清洁能源基础设施项目的一部分。

Dr Jiang Lin, a China energy expert at the University of California-Berkeley, tells Carbon Brief that natural gas has been at the centre of the debate on energy transition. The discussion is partially caused by natural gas’s role as a form of “transitional energy” to replace coal. It is also spawned by the potential danger of a high-carbon lock-in due to the fact that natural gas is a fossil fuel. He adds:

“Natural gas has a positive contribution to reducing air pollution and to meet the peak demand for power in certain situations. However, if we want to arrive at a net-zero future, we have to also bring down the emission from natural gas to zero. [Continuing to develop natural gas] is not 100% aligned with the carbon neutrality goal in the long-term.”

Will the 14FYP keep China on track to meet its climate pledges?

中国碳简介中采访的中国能源和气候专家表示,中国是“轨道”,以满足2030年达到峰值排放的承诺,尽管许多人认为中国将达乐动体育下载app到2060年的碳中立目标需要更多的努力。

邹教授说,他“完全有信心”,中国将在2030年之前实现高峰排放目标。

A学习2020年12月,从2060年审查了中国可以达到净零排放的可用情景。结论是14个差价期间二氧化碳强度减少18-20%,将该国将该国朝向2060逐碳中立的轨迹。全球1.5℃温度升高,如下图所示。

A review on selected models of CO2 emission reduction trajectories for 1.5C and 2C
对1.5C和2C的CO2减排轨迹所选模型的综述。大多数情景项目,中国可能在2030年之前看到二氧化碳排放峰值,甚至在2025年之前。资料来源:能源基金会中国(2020.)。

这项研究由EFC由一群中国和国际气候科学家撰写,包括国务院和国家发展和改革委员会的顾问(NDRC),以及三个政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC.) co-chairs and lead authors.

Prof Zou adds that when the 14FYP is evaluated in a few years, there is a “very big chance” that the actual reduction will “surpass 20%”. He explains:

“The current target (18% of CO2 emission intensity reduction in 14FYP) is at the lower end of the range [needed to be consistent with a 1.5C pathway], which means it’s already aiming for an ambitious goal. Besides, we also need to look at the possibility of overachievement: if you break down the 2% into five years, it means a mere 0.4% of additional reduction [each year].”

Prof Zou says appeals from “international colleagues” for more stringent climate targets and ambitious policies are sensible, but they also reflect a general misunderstanding about China’s political process and its overall strategic objectives for the next four decades. He tells Carbon Brief:

“It’s too early to say whether the 14FYP is ambitious enough for carbon neutrality in 2060. We are standing at the beginning of a five year plan. We can’t simply conclude whether China could achieve the goal in 40 years based on its performance in five years, which is only one-eighth of the length up to 2060. We have to look at the trajectory forward.”

Dr Lin, who has carried out several modelling research projects into China’s decarbonisation scenarios, says based on the research findings, it is “highly possible” for China to peak its emissions by 2030. He also thinks the country’s decarbonisation transition would刺激经济增长并带来一系列额外的福利,例如创造更多的工作。

China exceeded the CO2 intensity reduction targets of the previous two five year plans, as shown in the chart below. China first introduced the five year CO2 intensity reduction control target as a “binding” indicator of its five year plans in2011年

To date, a total of three targets have been announced, namely, the 12FYP (2011-2015), 13FYP (2016-2020) and 14FYP (2021-2025), as shown in dark blue. In reality, China overperformed on this target twice in row, as shown in red.

CO2 intensity targets in the 12FYP 13FYP and 14FYP versus actual performance
CO2 intensity targets (blue) in the 12FYP (2011-2015), 13FYP (2016-2020) and 14FYP (2021-2025) versus actual performance (red). For the 14FYP, a projection of expected performance is shown in pink. Source: State Council (2011, 2016, 2021) and Tsinghua ICCSD (2020.)。通过碳简短使用生产乐动体育下载appHighcharts

For the current 14FYP period, China is expected to once again overachieve with an estimated 19.4% reduction in CO2 intensity, according to research by 18 leading climate science institutes in China, led by Tsinghua University’s Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development (ICCSD). This reduction would put China on a path to overachieving the CO2 intensity target in its NDC for 2030, the research suggests.

闵胡如果人们只看出在14FYP轮廓的“有限指标”或任何外观上 - 未承认中国过去的超前成立,那么中国的气候行动将不是中国气候行动的“公平判断”。

“Looking back, most of the targets – from renewable energy installed capacity through to CO2 intensity – were overperformed. We cannot calculate the trajectory simply based on the targets illustrated in the 14FYP outline and say that they will not be sufficient for [the 2060 climate neutrality pledge].”

杨博士,过去四十年来,致力于中国能源和气候政策,具有不同的观点。他说,他完全理解了顶级政策制造商的“保守派考虑因素”,他通常不会承诺他们无法实现 - 这是一个深深植根于中国政治文化的逻辑。尽管如此,由于气候变化的紧迫性,杨博士呼吁更多雄心勃勃的目标和“大胆”思考,因为气候变化的紧迫性。他讲碳简短:乐动体育下载app

“将目标提升到19%怎么样?即使它不会完全实现 - 说,在18.5% - 它仍然不是一个不好的交易。许多发达国家已发表严格的目标,以至于他们最终不会达到迎接,但他们提供了明确的努力方向。“

According to Prof Zou, expected improvements in CO2 intensity mean that most provinces in China could reach peak emissions, or come close to it, during the 14FYP period, based on a yet-to-be-published study compiled by the Energy Foundation China. With provinces and cities that contribute around 80% of China’s emission “having peaked” or “expected to peak before 2025”, he believes achieving nationwide peak emissions during the 14FYP is a “low-hanging fruit”.

Why does the 14FYP not set a ‘carbon cap’?

这lack of a formal “cap” on carbon emissions is, perhaps, one of the most confusing parts of the 14FYP outline.

尽管轮廓没有设定碳帽,但它确实说,中国将“实施系统主要基于碳强控制,碳帽作为补充”。

Given that China has not proposed a carbon cap, how can it be used to supplement the plan?

中国国家主席九金平在北京人民大会堂出席了国家人民国会的开幕式
中国国家主席习近平出席了北京人民大厅的全国人民国会开幕式。信用:Newscom / Alamy股票照片。

一些中国专家告诉碳简介,他们认为政府很快就会愿意引入排放帽乐动体育下载app。然而,由于两个问题,此类目标难以在目前执行。

First, a top-down approach would not address the reality faced by local officials. Second, China does not currently have enough detailed research on how to achieve “carbon neutrality” in order to support the government in coming up with an overall carbon cap.

In the past, the central government has used mandatory top-down instructions to resolve issues surrounding energy consumption and energy intensity. But there have been substantial disadvantages and setbacks, such as cutting of power supplies to meet targets.

北京大学傅强杨博士表示,中国政府已经从这种经验中学到了设定碳帽。

在13场比赛中,中国介绍了“双控制”的政策,要求每个联合国能源消耗it of GDP – energy intensity – be reduced by 15% by 2020 compared with 2015. The policy also required that total energy consumption remained under 5bn tonnes of标准煤当量(tce)。国务院随后将全国“双控”目标划分为各省目标。

然而,杨博士说:“在国家能源局只有少数员工的情况下,如何合理地分解(并实施)这些目标?”

他补充说,许多省份不满意,说目标是不现实的,这导致了严重后果。例如,浙江省刚刚在上海以南,诉诸于limiting electricity consumptionand even cutting off electricity at the end of 2020 to achieve its goal. This forced many factories to halt production and left a large number of residents without heating in winter.

杨博士表示,使用“作为补充剂”的计划表明,最终将在14个差异期间建立盖子。但他认为,上限的制定不会是自上而下的,但相当自下而上,这意味着中央政府不会设定总体上限,然后向省份发送个人目标。

相反,每个省和部门都将确定自己的目标,然后将其汇总到国家碳帽中。他说这是一个“更可靠的计划”。

Ma Jun是公共和环境研究所的主任(IPE.), an environmental research NGO based in Beijing, agrees with Dr Yang. Ma says that there are also some “technical reasons” for China not to mention a carbon cap in the 14FYP. For example, there is little research to date into how China can best achieve its new carbon neutrality goal.

马马说,实现碳中立性的目标比达峰排放更重要。IPE的研究发现它实际上是“很容易”到达排放峰值,这可能忍受碳密集型项目的建设。MA称之为“低质量峰”。但这种措施没有帮助在长期内实现碳中立。事实上,它可以使目标更加困难。马俊告诉碳简介:乐动体育下载app

“High-quality peaking is the key to provide favourable conditions for subsequent carbon neutralisation. However, the current research on high-quality peaking is still insufficient.”

帽:'自下而上'方法会导致漏洞?

But would a change from “top-down” to “bottom-up” planning, in which each province sets its own carbon cap, lead to looser emissions goals?

是的,据中国专家说。

Dr Jiahua Pan是中国社会科学院的成员,乐动体育 英超said at a conference2021年1月:

“Recently, a local official told me that carbon peaks are not difficult to achieve. If we built a batch of high-carbon projects during the 14FYP and 15FYP periods and then stopped afterwards, won’t we easily achieve a carbon peak that way?”

吉南博士王,中国工程院和生态环境部环境规划研究所的院长成员,具有类似的观点。他在一个人中说面试with China Energy News, a state-affiliated media, in January:

“Many provinces believe that the use of fossil energy can continue to be substantially increased before 2030. They are even planning to first reach a new and higher peak of carbon emissions during the 14FYP and will only consider the decline after reaching the ‘new peak’.”

帽:漏洞如何关闭?

杨博士表示,地方政府通知的任何目标都确实非常松散,但最终的说法仍然伴随着中央政府。中央政府不仅会密切审查地方政府提出的目标,还将将其作为基准评估当地官员的表现。

他说碳强度被视为省级领导者的绑定指标。因此,如果总督未能达到这一目标,他们将失去工作。相比之下,碳峰是指导指示器。因此,如果两个州长都达到了碳强势目标,那么被视为在达到峰值碳排放中更好地表现的人可能会得到促销。

杨博士表示,这类似于国际气候协定如何工作。这京都议定书was a top-down, compulsory allocation of targets to countries and some haveargued它没有成功。现在,在Paris Agreement,它已经转变为自下而上的方法,各国每五年根据所谓的“国家数据中心”提出自己的国家数据中心棘轮机制“。

“否则,谈判可能仍在继续,”他说。

自下而上的方式与中国独特的治理体制密切相关,尤其是中央和地方政府之间的权力争斗。胡敏博士说,重要的是要鼓励地方当局制定比中央政府制定的目标更严格的目标。她说,只有当地方目标更高时,中央政府的这些政策才能实现。她补充道:

“以排放量达到峰值为例,大家都预计中国将在2025年达到峰值。如果各省都把2025年定为目标,即使中央没有公布这样的时间表,全国还是有可能提前实现这个目标。”

但是MA希望使用另一种方法可以关闭漏洞。IPE.与之合作中国环境科学研究院乐动体育 英超to study the establishment of a “carbon peaking/neutrality index”, which – as an effort to restrict misleading self-reporting – uses key indicators to measure progress and monitor all provinces and industries to ensure they would peak their emissions in a responsible and so-called “high-quality” way.

帽:如何实现“高质量峰”?

马英九认为,应该提前制定“见顶时间表”:“见顶的时机非常重要。越早达到峰值,就越晚可以限制碳排放。”

EFC ZOU教授认为,实现所需的排放减少需求许多涉及多个部门的结构变化,包括电力,重工业,运输,建筑和土地利用。所有这些更改都需要时间。

例如,降低功耗并最初增加非化石能源将相对较慢。这一切都需要对各种问题进行大规模的技术和金融投资,例如网格灵活性和储能。

But once past the “tipping point”, carbon emission will drop at accelerated speeds, says Prof Zou. He adds:

“This is similar to changing of direction for a giant ship. It will be slow for the ship to overcome inertia and turn around, but once it’s turned around, it will speed up.”

Compared to establishing goals, he says it is more important to consider the levels of policy enforcement, infrastructure construction and technological support.

来自这个故事的Sharelines
  • 问答:中国第14届五年计划对气候变化的意思是什么?

THE BRIEF

专家分析直接到乐动体育app苹果j您的收件箱。

Get a Daily or Weekly round-up of all the important articles and papers selected by Carbon Brief by email. By entering your email address you agree for your data to be handled in accordance with our隐私政策

THE BRIEF

专家分析直接到乐动体育app苹果j您的收件箱。

Get a Daily or Weekly round-up of all the important articles and papers selected by Carbon Brief by email. By entering your email address you agree for your data to be handled in accordance with our隐私政策