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Factory oil and gas industry. 信用:Ttstudio / Alamy股票照片
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26 February 202113:00

UN: New national climate pledges will only cut emissions ‘by 2%’ over next decade

Josh Gabbatiss

Josh Gabbatiss

0.2。26.21
Josh Gabbatiss

Josh Gabbatiss

26.02.2021 |1:00 PM
ldsports乐动体育 UN: New national climate pledges will only cut emissions ‘by 2%’ over next decade

最新一轮的民族气候承诺下降“远远缩短所需的东西”,以实现所列目标巴黎协议, according to new UN analysis.

A new “synthesis report” fromUN Climate Change检查48新和更新的合并影响国家决定捐款” (NDCs) submitted by its end-of-year deadline.

Countries were meant to set more ambitious targets by the close of 2020, but the report shows that, overall, the level of ambition has only increased slightly.

The combined emissions cuts of the new pledges are only around 3% lower by 2030 than the previous round of pledges submitted by those nations in 2015.

Furthermore, with these targets in place their combined emissions would be just 0.5% lower in 2030 than in 2010 and 2.1% lower than in 2017– far off the 45% reduction in total CO2 emissions from 2010 scientists havesaidis required to keep warming below 1.5C.

With most of the world’s biggest emitters – notably, the US and China – still yet to release new NDCs nearly two months after the deadline passed, the report emphasises “the need for parties to further strengthen their mitigation commitments”.

(For more information on the new NDCs, their level of ambition and climate finance requirements, Carbon Brief analysed the nations that met the end of year deadline in aseparate文章上个月发布。)

需要更多的野心

签署巴黎协定的每个方都致力于提交纳税人,然后他们必须在所谓的“中,他们必须在五年内续订或升级”棘轮机制”.

这很重要,因为第一轮国防委员会werefar offwhat is required to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming since the pre-industrial era to “well below” 2C, let alone its stretch target of 1.5C.

Although many nations have stated that their targets are consistent with巴黎协议goals, the UN points in its new report to the findings of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)。

Accordingto the IPCC, a 45% reduction in global CO2 emissions between 2010 and 2030 is required to meet the temperature goal of 1.5C – and a 25% reduction is needed to stay below 2C of global warming. There are also deep reductions required for non-CO2 emissions.

However, the new report finds that the total emissions of nations that had come forward with new pledges would be just 0.5% lower in 2030 than in 2010 and 2.1% lower than in 2017. The report states:

“While noting that this synthesis of information covers only about 40% of the parties to the Paris Agreement, the collective scale of reduction expected to be achieved, for those parties considered, through the implementation of new or updated NDCs falls far short of the IPCC ranges.”

在个人的基础上,联合国在其新的综合报告中表示,许多缔约方实际上“增加了应对气候变化的雄心”。

Glossary
CO.2相等的:温室气体可以以二氧化碳等效,或CO表示2eq. For a given amount, different greenhouse gases trap different amounts of heat in the atmosphere, a quantity known as…Read More

在陪同新闻稿中,COP25总裁Carolina Schmidt指出,英国和欧盟在减少目标中致力于“强劲增长”。

然而,即使在这种增强的野心中,这些国家十年内预期的总排放量即将仅为2.8%,或398mtco2e,低于其初始承诺。这约为今天全球总排放量的约0.8%。

This small improvement can be seen in the chart below, with further progress possible if some nations’ extra “conditional” targets are accounted for.

Projected range of emission levels, according to the new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) from 48 parties. The shaded area indicates a range from the upper bound of unconditional NDCs to the lower bound of conditional NDCs. The light grey area is the emissions from previous NDCs for the same group of parties and the dark blue area indicates the updated ranges based on their new or updated NDCs. The chart on the chart is a zoomed-in version of the chart on the left. This includes all greenhouse gases, but does not include land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). Source: UN Climate Change

Conditional targets tend to rely on richer countries providing help, such as extraclimate finance(见上文),以及其他因素,例如CO2森林可以吸收多少因素。新NDCS中无条件目标的数量增加了5%左右。

Unlike the previous set of NDCs发表于2015年,新一轮可以看到2030年之前的这些国家的排放,特别是如果包括条件元素。这可以在下面的图表中看到。

Projected-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions-under-the-new-or-updated-NDCs-with-unconditional-elements-only-included-(left)-and-conditional-elements-included-as-well-(right)
Projected total greenhouse gas emissions under the new or updated NDCs with unconditional elements only included (left) and conditional elements included as well (right). Source: UN Climate Change

Improved coverage

The synthesis report is made up of information drawn from 48 NDCs, including one from the EU and its 27 member states.

2017年这些国家的总排放量估计约为14GTCO2E,这仅占全球总数的29%。

This is three more NDCs than Carbon Brief accounted for in itsown analysispublished last month owing to the inclusion of Ecuador, Uruguay and North Korea, whichcollectively accountfor around 0.4% of global emissions.

It is unclear why the UN included the two Latin American nations as they have both only submitted one NDC.

It may be related to an arcane procedure by which nations can request their originalintended nationally determined contributions(INDCs) not be automatically converted to official NDCs. Carbon Brief has asked for clarification on this discrepancy.

朝鲜2019年的2019年更新被排除在外Climate WatchandClimate Action Tracker数据库碳简介在其分析乐动体育下载app中使用,尽管两者都已根据联合国报告更新。乐动体育app苹果j这可能是由于它在提交并添加到的冗长延迟联合国登记处

Since the end of 2020 there have been new NDCs submitted by Iceland, St Lucia and South Sudan, but these were not included in the UN’s analysis.

There has been an overall increase in coverage by nations’ climate pledges, with 99.2% of their economies covered, up from 97.8% in the previous round of NDCs from these countries.

Some nations exclude certain sectors of greenhouse gases because they are deemed “negligible”, or because they lack the technical capacity to monitor them, according to the report.

Nevertheless, the number of parties communicating economy-wide targets has also increased by around 8%, with many NDCs also including components addressing adaptation to climate impacts.

在下面的图表中可以看到第一和第二轮NDC之间的覆盖差异,其显示不同的部门和温室气体。

Sectors (left) and greenhouse gases (right) covered in nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Light blue indicates the coverage in the original round of NDCs submitted in 2015 and dark blue indicates the coverage in the latest round of NDCs submitted by the end of 2020. “IPPU” refers to industrial processes and product use and “LULUCF” refers to land use, land-use change and forestry. “SLCP” refers to “short-lived climate pollutants”. Source: UN Climate Change

The number of parties stating they would use “voluntary cooperation” – primarily, carbon markets – underArticle 6of the Paris Agreement to meet their targets nearly doubled compared to the first NDCs.

With the rules around Article 6 still to be decided andmany concernedthat the trading of emissions could undermine the Paris Agreement, it is notable that many NDCs also included limits on participating in such markets and commitments to high standards.

'红色警报'

几乎所有缔约方都传达了NDC实施期,直到本新一轮承诺所需的情况。

However, a few still used 2025 as their target year and some nations also included targets for 2050.

Many parties mentioned long-term targets that referenced net-zero emissions or carbon neutrality. While “noting the inherent uncertainties in such long-term estimates”, the UN’s report concludes that following such plans could cut their emissions by 80-90% by 2050.

虽然有a recent waveof pledges to reach net-zero by 2050 or 2060, the point of updating NDCs is to set ambitious, short-term targets, as US climate envoy John Kerry告诉a recent UN security conference:

“It is simply not acceptable…for countries to think they can go to [COP26] and simply put big numbers out for projections – 30 or 40 years from now or longer. It’s what people will do in the next 10 years that matter.”

在AntónioGuteres的联合国秘书长联合国秘书长中说:

“今天的”UNFCCC [联合国气候变化]的中期报告是我们星球的红色警报。它表明各国政府无处可靠地限制气候变化为1.5度,符合巴黎协定的目标。“

The US itself is still yet to announce its new NDC, but president Joe Bidenis conveninga meeting of world leaders from major economies on 22 April to ramp up the pressure on climate action.

Meanwhile, China, the world’s largest emitter,has signalledit will increase the ambition of its NDC, but has yet to formally submit it. Other major economies including India, Indonesia and Canada are also yet to come forward with theirs.

As captured inCarbon Brief’s最近的覆盖范围,不仅有日本,韩国和俄罗斯等国家没有与其新的NDCS,其他主要经济体的雄心,即巴西和墨西哥 - 实际上缩减了他们的野心。

Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga, a climate policy analyst atNewClimate Institutewho works on analysing NDCs forClimate Action Tracker(CAT), tells Carbon Brief:

“Despite the situation now, there is everything to play for by Glasgow. The countries that have so far not put forward changes and ambition could be embarrassed into further action once the major players step forward and many will be placed under diplomatic pressure to do so.”

The UN has said it will prepare a more comprehensive synthesis report ahead of COP26 when additional NDCs have been released.

Sharelines from this story
  • UN: New national climate pledges will only cut emissions ‘by 2%’ over next decade
  • UN: New climate pledges fall ‘far short’ of Paris Agreement targets

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